America's Resolve.
From: Dr. Tony Kern, Lt Col, USAF (Ret)
Recently, I was asked to look at the recent events through
the lens of military history. I have joined the cast of thousands who have
written an "open letter to Americans."
Dear friends and fellow Americans:
14 September, 2001
Like everyone else in this great country, I am reeling
from last week's attack on our sovereignty. But unlike some, I am not reeling
from surprise. As a career soldier and a student and teacher of military
history, I have a different perspective and I think you should hear it. This
war will be won or lost by the American citizens, not diplomats, politicians
or soldiers. Let me briefly explain. In spite of what the media, ! and even
our own government is telling us, this act was not committed by a group of
mentally deranged fanatics. To dismiss them as such would be among the gravest
of mistakes. This attack was committed by a ferocious, intelligent and dedicated
adversary. Don't take this the wrong way. I don't admire these men and I
deplore their tactics, but I respect their capabilities. The many parallels
that have been made with the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor are apropos.
Not only because it was a brilliant sneak attack against a complacent America,
but also because we may well be pulling our new adversaries out of caves
30 years after we think this war is over, just like my father's generation
had to do with the formidable Japanese in the years following WW
II.
These men hate the United States with all of their being,
and we must not underestimate the power of their moral commitment. Napoleon,
perhaps the world's greatest combination of soldier and statesman, stated
"the moral is to the physical as three is to one." Patton thought the Frenchman
underestimated its importance and said moral conviction was five times more
important in battle than physical strength. Our enemies are willing - better
said anxious -- to give their lives for their cause.
How committed are we America? And for how long? In addition
to demonstrating great moral conviction, the recent attack demonstrated a
mastery of some of the basic fundamentals of warfare taught to most military
officers worldwide, namely simplicity, security and surprise. When I first
heard rumors that some of these men may have been trained at our own Air
War College, it made perfect sense to me. This was not a random act of violence,
and we can expect the same sort of military competence to be displayed in
the battle to come.
This war will escalate, with a good portion of it happening
right here in the good ol' U.S. of A.
These men will not go easily into the night. They do not
fear us. We must not fear them. In spite of our overwhelming conventional
strength as the world's only "superpower" (a truly silly term), we are the
underdog in this fight. As you listen to the carefully scripted rhetoric
designed to prepare us for the march for war, please realize that America
is not equipped or seriously trained for the battle ahead. To be certain,
our soldiers are much better than the enemy, and we have some excellent
"counter-terrorist" organizations, but they are mostly trained for hostage
rescues, airfield seizures, or the occasional "body snatch," (which may come
in handy). We will be fighting a war of annihilation, because if their early
efforts are any indication, our enemy is ready and willing to die to the
last man. Eradicating the enemy will be costly and time consuming. They have
already deployed their forces in as many as 20 countries, and are likely
living the lives of everyday citizens.
Simply put, our soldiers will be tasked with a search and
destroy mission on multiple foreign landscapes, and the public must be patient
and supportive until the strategy and tactics can be worked out. For the
most part, our military is still in the process of redefining itself and
presided over by men and women who grew up with - and Were promoted because
they excelled in - Cold War doctrine, strategy and tactics. This will not
be linear warfare, there will be no clear "centers of gravity" to strike
with high technology weapons. Our vast technological edge will certainly
be helpful, but it will not be decisive. Perhaps the perfect metaphor for
the coming battle was introduced by the terrorists themselves aboard the
hijacked aircraft -- this will be a knife fight, and it will be won or lost
by the ingenuity and will of citizens and soldiers, not by software or smart
bombs. We must also be patient with our military leaders. Unlike Americans
who are eager to put this messy time behind us, our adversaries have time
on their side, and they will use it. They plan to fight a battle of attrition,
hoping to drag the battle out until the American public loses its will to
fight. This might be difficult to believe in this euphoric time of flag waving
and patriotism, but it is generally acknowledged that America lacks the stomach
for a long fight. We need only look as far back as Vietnam, when North Vietnamese
General Vo Nguyen Giap (also a military history teacher) defeated the United
States of America without ever winning a major tactical battle. American
soldiers who marched to war cheered on by flag waving Americans in 1965 were
reviled and spat upon less than three years later when they returned. Although
we hope that Usama Bin Laden is no Giap, he is certain to understand and
employ the concept. We can expect not only large doses of pain like the recent
attacks, but! also less audacious "sand in the gears" tactics, ranging from
livestock infestations to attacks at water supplies and power distribution
facilities.
These attacks are designed to hit us in our "comfort zone"
forcing the average American to "pay more and play less" and eventually eroding
our resolve. But it can only work if we let it. It is clear to me that the
will of the American citizenry - you and I - is the center of gravity the
enemy has targeted. It will be the fulcrum upon which victory or defeat will
turn. He believes us to be soft, impatient, and self
centered.
He may be right, but if so, we must change. The Prussian
general Carl von Clausewitz, (the most often quoted and least read military
theorist In history), says that there is a "remarkable trinity of war" that
is composed of the (1) will of the people, (2) the political leadership of
the government, and (3) the chance and probability that plays out on the
field of battle, in that order. Every American citizen was in the crosshairs
of last Tuesday's attack, not just those that were unfortunate enough to
be in the World Trade Center or Pentagon. The will of the American people
will decide this war. If we are to win, it will be because we have what it
takes to persevere through a few more hits, learn from our mistakes, improvise,
and adapt. If we can do that, we will eventually prevail.
Everyone I've talked to in the past few days has shared
a common frustration, saying in one form or another "I just wish I could
do something!" You are already doing it. Just keep faith in America, and
continue to support your President and military, and the outcome is certain.
If we fail to do so, the outcome is equally certain.
God Bless America.
Dr. Tony Kern, Lt Col, USAF (Ret)
Former Director of Military History, USAF
Academy
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Please forward this to everyone you know. I hope you agree
that the message is very clear and must be understood by every citizen of
this country.
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