In the midst of dozen of other factors in play in the Middle East right now, the continuing partnership of Russia and Iran continues apace.
While the Western world struggles with myriad issues at home, the major players in the post-Western led Middle East – and Israel – continue to fill in the vacuum left in the wake of America’s withdrawal from the region under the previous administration.
A world reflexively hostile to the Jews and the Jewish nation Israel would not hesitate at all to justify an aggressive action against Israel if they started disrupting economic realities that prevail at the present time. Especially Russia. The European energy marketplace is their backyard and one of Putins’ main sources of leverage over the EU and NATO.
The discovery of these fields in recent years will prove to be a major issue in the future of energy and the geo-politics of the region.
Daniel Cloud, lecturer at Princeton University Center for Human Values/Humanities Council, posits an interesting thesis at a blog post at Zero Hedge, after president elect Trump’s call to the leader of Taiwan. In “Trump’s Shot Across China’s Bow,” he articulates various times in history when miscommunications between nations have led to wars that would have otherwise been, possibly, prevented. The current “bromance” between Trump and Putin has caused some angst in national security and global circles. This is understandable.
Setting aside the more complex issues of the recent energy and currency wars based in the decades long reign of the petro-dollar and the BRIC’s nations attempts to unseat that global financial hegemony, it is helpful to shed more light on what is more obvious to the casual observer.
Both Trump and Clinton in the 2016 presidential debates made their foreign policy priorities clear. Hillary Clinton was very clear she was going to challenge Putin and his military adventurism (whether in the Ukraine and Crimea or the Middle East) by insisting on a “no fly” zone over Syria. This, a notion long time ago hobbled by hers and the outgoing Obama administration’s failure to act years ago in that country, would have put American NAVY and air force fighter jockeys in immediate direct conflict with the Russian and Syrian air forces. There already is a no-fly zone in Syria. It’s enforced by Russian air power, backed up by their S-300 air defense missile systems. It would have been WWIII.
Trump’s foreign policy priorities are China and the South China sea. He was very adamant about it in the debates, and it is even more clear in his foreign policy priorities listed on his web site. He has stated he supports Russia destroying ISIS, and we should let them do it. Daniel Cloud says that Trump’s phone call to Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen was a clear warning shot across China’s bow concerning any repercussions on moves they might make in the future against that country, and how, historically, not doing so – being clear on our intentions and potential responses to scenarios like this – can only invite disaster. He is right, and I agree with other analysts who presented the same theory. Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait is a perfect example. I remember that well.
Here’s the wrinkle: while Team Trump is gearing up to challenge “Chy-Na!” and their expansionism in the South China sea and currency manipulation in the years ahead, forecasting his position to the Chinese, he’s failing to maintain the same deterrence against Russia and her allies in the immediate future as they seek to expand their influence throughout the Middle East.
10 Thus saith the Lord God; It shall also come to pass, that at the same time shall things come into thy mind, and thou shalt think an evil thought:
11 And thou shalt say, I will go up to the land of unwalled villages; I will go to them that are at rest, that dwell safely, all of them dwelling without walls, and having neither bars nor gates… (Ezekial 38:10-11)
The inevitable target in that scenario? The Bible teaches explicitly in Ezekial 38-39 that “in the latter days” a coalition from the North (Russia is now dug in, in Syria) will invade the “hills of Israel.” With the radical changes nationally and globally in energy and the currency wars and the withdrawal of America from the Middle East as a priority because of our energy independence, Israel is in a precarious position, more than any time in their history.
I understand perfectly Trump has vocalized unequivocal support for the Jewish nation. Nonetheless, dealing with an individual like Putin who has dominated national news headlines for a longtime now because of his aggressiveness and shrewdness, and the extremely morally ambiguous and compromised Trump, who as a businessman views everything on a cost/benefit plane, the idea of the U.S. rushing in to defend Israel in an Ezekial 38-39 scenario is unfortunately based largely on a lot of sentimentalism and severely misplaced hope. Hope in Trump, not the Holy One of Israel.
The Persians continue to prepare for an even more aggressive role in the Middle East. Especially with the election of Donald Trump, his appointment of retired United States Marine Corps general James “Mad Dog” Mattis for Secretary of Defense, and the incoming American administration’s stated 180 degree reversal in posture dealing with them.